On June 9, 2026, the Global Semiconductor Industry Pattern Analysis Report was officially released. TSMC, Samsung Electronics, and Intel, the three giant companies that hold the global high-end wafer manufacturing discourse power, have simultaneously completed the core strategic adjustment for the next five years, officially ending the competition mode that lasted for more than ten years of simply competing for nanometer process accuracy. They will no longer concentrate all capital expenditures and R&D resources on extreme advanced logic process iterations such as 2nm and 1.4nm, but instead collectively invest heavily in advanced heterogeneous packaging, glass packaging substrates, HBM high bandwidth storage supporting, and backside power supply technology. The global semiconductor technology competition mainline has undergone a disruptive switch, and the long-standing technological monopoly pattern has been completely broken, creating a rare equal opportunity for domestic semiconductor manufacturers. Competitive opportunities.

In the past decade, the global semiconductor industry has formed a fixed competitive logic: the smaller the process number, the stronger the chip performance, and the speed of advanced process iteration directly determines the industry position of manufacturers. TSMC firmly occupies the global wafer foundry leader by relying on 3nm and 2nm continuous leadership, Samsung closely follows to catch up with advanced processes, Intel continues to focus on IDM advanced logic processes, and the three giants invest billions of dollars in EUV lithography machines and advanced logic wafer production lines every year. Advanced process patents, EUV equipment, and photoresist matching form three strict barriers. Even if domestic wafer manufacturers such as SMIC continue to invest heavily in research and development, the advanced process generation gap still maintains 3-4 generations, and the hard catch-up path investment is extremely high and the effect is extremely slow, falling into a passive catch-up dilemma for a long time. The marginal benefits of extremely advanced processes continue to rapidly decline: from 7nm iteration to 3nm, the cost reduction per unit transistor of the chip is less than 11%, but the R&D investment and production line construction investment have increased by over 180%; After iterating to the 2nm node, the physical limit of Moore's Law approaches, and the performance improvement brought by transistor miniaturization is minimal. The hardware cost per unit of computing power does not decrease but increases, and the input-output ratio of extremely advanced processes deteriorates rapidly. The active strategic shift of giants has objective economic reasons.

The strategic layout details of the three giants are clear: TSMC has compressed the proportion of capital expenditure for the subsequent expansion of 2nm production, investing over 60% of new capital expenditure in the two advanced packaging platforms CoWoS and CoPOS, synchronously supporting the construction of glass substrate test lines, and binding long-term orders for Nvidia HBM packaging; Samsung splits its advanced logic process independent business unit and adds a global business unit for advanced packaging, opening up heterogeneous packaging outsourcing services to external Fabless chip design manufacturers, no longer only serving its own chip business; Intel is fully promoting the EMIB+Foveros hybrid packaging technology, developing its own glass substrate supporting production line, and relying on packaging technology to fill its own wafer foundry shortcomings, transforming into an IDM+packaging foundry dual business model. Three companies unanimously reached a consensus: in the future, the performance improvement of computing chips will no longer rely solely on die process miniaturization, and the cost performance of multi die heterogeneous advanced packaging combination solutions will far exceed that of a single extreme advanced process chip. The turning point of the technological roadmap has been officially established.

Switching the global technology competition track, directly reconstructing the starting line of the global chip industry. The extremely advanced process is highly bound to EUV lithography machines, exclusive overseas patents, and Japanese photoresist matching, allowing local manufacturers to be fully controlled by others; However, there is no exclusive equipment monopoly or core patent blockade for advanced packaging, substrate processing, and HBM stacking supporting processes. The packaging equipment of domestic Tuojing Technology and Changchuan Technology has already been commercially used in bulk; The global market share of Changdian Technology, Tongfu Microelectronics, and Huatian Technology in the packaging and testing end remains among the top three, with the ability to mass produce and deliver large-scale heterogeneous advanced packaging; Local manufacturers have simultaneously completed sample verification for glass substrates and carrier boards, and the complete supporting industrial chain has been localized and controllable. The gap in technology accumulation between domestic and foreign manufacturers in the new track is less than one generation, and the starting point of competition is basically the same. Domestic chips have ushered in a historic opportunity to overtake on the bend.

New route for synchronous adaptation of downstream AI computing chip customer demand: NVIDIA Rubin and AMD's new generation GPU both adopt advanced multi die packaging solutions, no longer pursuing the ultimate advanced process of a single die; All domestic AI training chips from Huawei Ascend, Boren, and Muxi are planned to adopt heterogeneous packaging architecture, relying on mature process bare chip stacking and advanced packaging combination solutions to achieve overall computing power benchmarking against top overseas single-chip products, perfectly avoiding the shortcomings of advanced processes. SMIC's mature 14nm and 28nm logic wafer production capacity continues to be released, combined with Changdian Technology's advanced packaging and outsourcing capabilities. The complete combination solution can meet the performance requirements of the vast majority of AI inference, automotive, and industrial control chips, with significant cost-effectiveness advantages.

The structural opportunities of the industry are synchronously transmitted to the capital market: the valuations of advanced packaging, packaging substrates, and HBM supporting industry chain targets in A-shares continue to rise, and packaging and testing leaders continue to receive cross-border packaging orders from overseas chip manufacturers. Overseas production capacity is gradually shifting to the domestic market. According to institutional calculations, the average annual compound growth rate of the global advanced packaging market from 2026 to 2030 is 18.7%, far exceeding the growth rate of the traditional wafer foundry industry by 7.2%, and the incremental space for new tracks is even broader.

Objective challenges still exist: high-end heterogeneous packaging architecture IP cores and bridge chip design technologies are still in the hands of overseas giants, and domestic design manufacturers still need to gradually accumulate them; The yield control process for ultra large multi chip stacking still requires 2-3 years of iterative production data. However, compared to advanced processes that are decades old, the existing technological gap can be quickly caught up, and there is no hardware equipment hard blockade. The collective strategic shift of global wafer giants is irreversible, and the semiconductor industry is bidding farewell to the era of pure process internalization. The domestic semiconductor industry is ushering in a new golden cycle of differentiation and breakthrough.